Scenario
A panel of psychologists interviewed a sample of 70 engineers and 30 lawyers, summarizing their impressions in thumbnail descriptions of each individual. The following description has been drawn at random from the sample of 70 engineers and 30 lawyers.<br /><br />"John is a 39 year old man. He is married and has two children. He is active in local politics. The hobby that he most enjoys is rare book collecting. He is competitive, argumentative, and articulate."<br /><br />What is the probability that John is a lawyer?
Now, let's look at a different scenario. And in this scenario, a panel of psychologists interviewed a sample of 70 engineers and 30 lawyers, summarizing their impressions and thumbnail descriptions of each individual. Now, the following description has been drawn at random from that sample of 70 engineers and 30 lawyers; and this is what it says: "John is a 39-year-old man. He is married and has two children. He is active in local politics. The hobby that he most enjoys is rare book collecting. He is competitive, argumentative, and articulate." So what's the probability that John is a lawyer?